Auto major Bajaj Auto is likely to register negative year-on-year growth during the fourth-quarter earnings for the financial year 2021-22 (Q4FY22), several brokerages estimate, expecting up to 25 and 12 per cent YoY fall in the top and bottom-line respectively amid higher input cost.  

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According to YES Securities, the auto company’s profit may decline by over 24 per cent YoY to Rs 1009.6 crore, while revenue may fall by 10.5 YoY to Rs 7696.9 crore in Q4FY22.  

The overall volume for the quarter de-grew ~17% YoY/ 17% quarter-on-quarter while realizations are expected to grow 7% YoY/ 3% QoQ YoY at Rs78.8k/unit. This should result in revenue degrowth of ~11% YoY/15% QoQ,” the brokerage said in its Q4 preview. 

YES Securities expect margins to contract 100 basis points QoQ at 14.2% due to negative op leverage and believe Baja Auto is relatively better placed to face margin headwinds due to higher exports mix and lean cost structure. 

In line with YES Securities expectations, another brokerage Centrum Broking expects the profit of Bajaj Auto to fall by 24.5 per cent YoY to Rs 1006 crore and revenue may slip by almost 12 per cent YoY to Rs 7625.8 crore in March quarter of FY22. 

“Bajaj Auto, exports share improved to 60% and total volume declined 16.5% YoY and 17.3% QoQ. We expect EBITDA margin at 14.8%, down 330bp YoY, on the back of higher costs and over a high base,” the brokerage said in its Q4 preview. 

Meanwhile, Axis Securities see profit tumbling by almost 23 per cent YoY to Rs 1030 crore and revenue down by nearly 12 per cent YoY to Rs 7,587 crore in Q4FY22.  

“Volumes declined by ~17% YoY primarily led by 30% decline in domestic 2W volumes due to supply challenges along with muted exports in Q4 being partly offset by 8% increase in domestic 3W volumes. We estimate EBITDA to decline by 27% YoY due to negative operating leverage and raw material headwinds impacting gross margins,” the brokerage said in its Q4 preview.