Auto sales preview: Car, two-wheeler sales likely grew modestly in July; here is why
Maruti Suzuki India, Tata Motors, Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto, TVS Motor, Ashok Leyland, Eicher Motors and other auto manufacturers are all set to report their monthly sales numbers starting August 1. According to Anand Rathi, while retail volumes in two-wheelers are likely to have grown in double-digits in July, those in passenger vehicles are likely to have remained steady.
Auto manufacturers — from the likes of Maruti Suzuki India, Tata Motors, Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto, TVS Motor, Ashok Leyland and Eicher Motors — are all set to report their sales numbers for July 20 starting August 1. Analysts expect sales volumes in the segments of passenger vehicles and two-wheelers to have registered modest growth owing to a high base in the corresponding period a year ago.
According to Anand Rathi, while retail volumes in two-wheelers are likely to have grown in double-digits in July, those in passenger vehicles are likely to have remained steady. The high base last year, according to the brokerage, was on account of an earlier festive season.
Here are some of the other key points, as listed by the brokerage in a report:
- Commercial vehicle sales likely to have grown in high single digits supported
- Tractor sales likely to be positive
According to Anand Rathi, while healthy retails and production ramp-ups are likely to have supported sales in the CV segment, tractor volumes are likely to have been aided by an uptick in kharif sowing and a low base.
Anand Rathi has a positive view on the auto space, with Hero MotoCorp and Ashok Leyland as its preferred picks.
Here's a summary of the brokerage's estimates for auto makers for the month:
| Volumes (in '000s) | July 2023 estimate | July 2022 actual | Year-on-year change (%) estimate |
| Maruti Suzuki | 180 | 175.9 | 2 |
| M&M (auto) | 63.5 | 56.1 | 13 |
| M&M (farm) | 24.5 | 23.3 | 5 |
| Tata Motors (domestic CVs) | 33.8 | 31.5 | 7 |
| Tata Motors (domestic PVs) | 46 | 47.5 | -3 |
| Ashok Leyland M&H (CVs) | 9.5 | 7.3 | 30 |
| Ashok Leyland (total) | 15.6 | 13.6 | 14 |
| Eicher Motors (CVs) | 6.4 | 6 | 7 |
| Bajaj Auto | 345 | 354.7 | -3 |
| Hero MotoCorp | 440 | 445.6 | -1 |
| Royal Enfield | 73 | 55.6 | 31 |
| TVS Motors | 320 | 314.6 | 2 |
| Escorts | 5.8 | 5.4 | 8 |
| Source: Anand Rathi Research, regulatory filings |
How the top auto makers fared in June 2023
According to auto dealers' body FADA, domestic retail sales in the sector rose 9.6 per cent on a year-on-year basis to 18,63,868 units in June amid growth across segments.
Out of the total sales, volumes in passenger vehicles grew 4.8 per cent to 2,95,299 units, according to the data.
| Particular | Jun-23 | Year-on-year change (%) | Zee Business estimate |
| Maruti Suzuki total sales | 1,59,418 | 2.3 | 1,68,000 |
| Tata Motors domestic PV sales | 47,235 | 4.5 | 45,000 |
| Tata Motors domestic CV sales | 34,314 | -7.9 | 31,500 |
| M&M auto sales | 62,429 | 15.4 | 62,000 |
| M&M tractor sales | 44,478 | 6.3 | 41,000 |
| Hero MotoCorp total sales | 4,36,993 | -9.9 | 5,00,000 |
| Bajaj Auto two-wheeler sales | 2,93,649 | -7.1 | 3,00,000 |
| Bajaj Auto total sales | 3,40,981 | -1.7 | 3,49,000 |
| TVS Motor two-wheeler sales | 3,04,401 | 3.6 | 3,11,000 |
| TVS Motor total sales | 3,16,411 | 2.6 | 3,23,400 |
| Royal Enfield sales | 77,109 | 25.6 | 77,000 |
| Eicher Motors VECV sales | 6,715 | 6.5 | 6,600 |
| Ashok Leyland CV sales | 15,221 | 4.7 | 14,700 |
| Escorts total sales | 9,850 | -2 | 10,040 |
| Source: Zee Business research, regulatory filings |
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