Nifty sheds 431 pts in March F&O series, Nifty Bank slips 91 pts — here's what to expect in April

Indian equity benchmark Nifty 50 finished the March derivatives (futures and options) series with a loss of 430.6 points — which is 2.5 per cent of its value, making it the fourth back-to-back negative series. On Wednesday, the last day of the March series owing to the Ram Navami holiday the next day, the Nifty50 settled at 17,080.7. It had begun the monthly series at 17,511.3.

The 50-scrip headline index gyrated within the 16,800-17,800 band in the March series. 

The Nifty Bank — whose 12 constituents include some of the country's largest lenders including SBI, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Punjab National Bank (PNB) — shed 91.4 points during this period, a decline of 0.2 per cent. 

The banking index — typically much more volatile than the Nifty50 — moved in a range of 3,058 points around the flatline, between 38,613.2 and 41,671.2, during the series gone by. 

Highlights of the March series

The sudden collapse followed by the rescue of the failed Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank rocked the financial shares the world over, leaving investors worried about contagion and the next batch of vulnerable businesses in the sector. The takeover of the troubled Credit Suisse, however, lent some support to the markets — reflected in the relative outperformance of the Nifty Bank to the Nifty50, though investors largely remained on the back foot.    

The focus shifted to the current cycle of rising interest rates, yet again, as the Fed lined up a second hike of 25 bps. Fed Chair Jerome Powell promised the safety of the banking system and reiterated his commitment to fighting red-hot inflation without disrupting economic growth. 

"The markets have remained on the tenterhooks amid fears of contagion from the banking crisis in the US, where the benchmark indices extended their downward spiral for a fourth consecutive month. Even as we have been underperforming the global markets for the last few months, the downside pressure seems to be abating and there has been a lot of base-building visible around the 16,800 mark for the Nifty," independent market expert Sugandha Sachdeva told Zeebiz.com. 

Key events to watch out for in April F&O series

Back home, all eyes will be on the outcome of RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das-led Monetary Policy Committee — the central bank's rate-deciding panel — due on April 6 for domestic cues. 

Analysts say the domestic corporate earnings season will take centrestage on Dalal Street in the April series, set to absorb the outcome of the RBI's bi-monthly review within the first few days.  

Here are some of the events likely to influence the April series:

DOMESTIC

• Financial results for January-March 2023
• RBI policy action
• Macroeconomic data including inflation
• FII flow
• Auto sales
• Rupee movement
• Resurgent COVID infections

GLOBAL

• Central bank commentary
• Global banking shares 
• Crude oil
• Dollar index
• Geopolitical situation

"With concerns about the stress in the global financial sector ebbing, risk sentiments have got a lift favouring the prospects of a meaningful rebound for the next (F&O) expiry... Market participants are expecting the US Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at their next meeting in May, leading to pressure on the greenback," said Sachdeva.

When will the Indian share market trade in the April series?

Dalal Street will enter the March F&O series on Friday, as investors return to trade after the mid-week Ram Navami holiday on March 30. The series will end at the end of the session on Thursday, April 27.