India's GDP growth in the fourth quarter drops to 6.1%; clocked 8% in 2015-16

Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation on Wednesday released India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers for the quarter January-March 12017. It said that India's GDP for the fourth quarter stood at 6.1%, missing estimates. In the previous quarter, GDP was at 7%, in second quarter stood at 7.4%, 7.2% in the first quarter of last fiscal. 

According to the revision, India's GDP in 2015-16 stood at 8% as against 7.9% and 7.5% in 2014-15 as against 7.2% earlier. 

Madan Sabnavis and Rucha Ranadive of Care Ratings said, "The GDP numbers for FY16 has gone through revision due to use of new Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) with base 2011-12 for the compilation of GDP. As a result, the GDP for FY16 has grown at 8.0% than the previous estimate of 7.9%."

The distinct downtrend in GDP growth over the quarters of FY2017 suggests that the slowdown in growth that had already set, was intensified by the note ban, Aditi Nayar, Principal economist, ICRA Limited said. 

GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in Q4 of 2016-17 is estimated at Rs 32.28 lakh crore, as against Rs 30.42 lakh crore in Q4 of 2015-16, showing a growth rate of 6.1%. GVA at basic prices at constant (2011-12) prices in Q4 of 2016-17 is estimated at Rs 28.69 lakhcrore, as against `27.18 lakh crore in Q4 of 2015-16, showing a growth rate of 5.6%.

Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the year 2016-17 is estimated at Rs 121.90 lakh crore showing a growth rate of 7.1 percent over the year 2015-16 of Rs 113.81 lakh crore. 

Nayar said, "Contrary to expectations, GVA growth slid sharply to 5.6% in Q4 FY2017 from the revised 6.7% in Q3 FY2017, on account of an unfavourable base effect, some impact of the note ban on sectors such as construction, and an unsurprising moderation in agricultural growth."

Real GVA, i.e, GVA at basic constant (2011-12) prices for the year 2016-17 is estimated at Rs 111.85 lakh crore showing a growth rate of 6.6 percent over the GVA for the year 2015-16 of Rs 104.91 lakh crore.

"The sectors which registered growth rate of over 7% at constant prices are 'public administration, defence and other services’ (11.3 percent), ), manufacturing (7.9 percent),‘ trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting’ (7.8 percent),‘electricity, gas, water supply other utility services (7.2 percent) ’.The growth in the ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’, ‘mining and quarrying’, ‘construction’ and 'financial, real estate and professional services' is estimated to be 4.9 per cent, 1.8 per cent, 1.7 per cent and 5.7 per cent respectively," Ministry said.

Nayar said, "The muted performance of construction; financial, real estate & professional services and trade, hotels, transport, communication etc. underpinned the lower than expected GVA growth print for Q4 FY2017."
 

The Gross National Income (GNI) at 2011-12 prices is estimated at Rs 120.35 lakh crore during 2016-17, as against the previous year’s estimate of Rs 112.46 lakh crore. In terms of growth rates, the gross national income is estimated to have risen by 7.0 percent during 2016-17, in comparison to the growth rate of 8.0 percent in 2015-16.

The per capita income in real terms (at 2011-12 prices) during 2016-17 is likely to attain a level of Rs 82,269 as compared to Rs 77,803 for the year 2015-16. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 5.7 percent during 2016-17, as against 6.8 percent in the previous year.

source: tradingeconomics.com

Analysts were expecting that the new IIP and WPI series will push up GDP numbers as the base year now stands at 2011-12 instead of 2004-05. Moody's Investors Services, in a note said that it expects Indian economy to grow at 7.5% in FY17 and 7.7% in FY18. 

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It said that Indian economy will gradually accelerate to around 8% over the next three to four years. 

Reuters poll of economists estimated GDP in the fourth quarter to touch 7.1% annually thereby retaining the fastest growing major economy tag. Indian economy grew at 7% in the quarter ended December 31, 2017. 

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The median forecast from 35 economists polled by Reuters put annual GDP growth for the January-March quarter at just tad faster than 7.0 percent posted in the previous quarter, but still ahead of the 6.9 percent expansion clocked by China during the same period.